In the ongoing ICC T20 World Cup in the
,
have emerged as the strongest team in Group 2.
Out of the six teams which are in this group, India, Pakistan and
(ranked 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively in the ICC T20I team rankings) are the three higher ranked teams, while
,
and
(ranked 8th, 14th and 19th respectively in the IC T20I team rankings) are the three lower ranked teams.
Pakistan, in their first two matches have comprehensively beaten the other two higher ranked teams in their group - India by 10 wickets and NZ by 5 wickets. That has given them a solid NRR of +0.738. They are of course sitting right on top of the group with 4 points from 2 games and are the frontrunners to top the group. Their remaining three matches are against the lower ranked teams - Afghanistan, Scotland and Namibia, which they are expected to win. Pakistan therefore are looking good to have a perfect record of 5 wins in the Super 12 stage and march into the semi-finals.
On the other hand, India and New Zealand are both yet to open their accounts. Both these teams have played one match each so far and lost - both of course to Pakistan. And this makes their clash against each other, which incidentally will be the next match for both these teams, a potential do or die affair.
Taking the hypothesis that Pakistan, India and NZ will all beat Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland, the team winning the India vs NZ clash will be the one joining Pakistan in the semi-finals.
After Pakistan's win vs NZ on Tuesday, there are now only two scenarios possible as far as Group 2 is concerned - either India beat NZ or NZ beat India.
In scenario 1 - If India beat NZ -
then India will finish on 8 points (assuming they beat Afghanistan, Scotland and Namibia) and NZ will finish on 6 points (assuming they beat Afghanistan, Scotland and Namibia). In this scenario, Pakistan and India will be the two teams going into the semi-finals from this group.
This of course is based on the hypothesis that Pakistan, India and NZ will all beat Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland.
In scenario 2 - If New Zealand beat India -
then India will end on 6 points (assuming they beat Afghanistan, Scotland and Namibia) and NZ will finish with 8 points (assuming they beat Afghanistan, Scotland and Namibia). And if this happens, then the Kiwis will be joining Pakistan as the second team from Group 2 to qualify for the knockouts.
This of course is based on the hypothesis that Pakistan, India and NZ will all beat Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland.
Of course, T20 is the most fickle format of the sport and an upset is not going to be surprising. The team which loses on Sunday could still make the semis, provided the other team is upset by a lower ranked team or teams and they themselves win their remaining matches.
The Men in Blue play the Black Caps on Sunday, October 31. While India vs Pakistan was a keenly followed clash for obvious reasons,
will be perhaps the most crucial encounter for both these teams.
India are ranked higher than NZ in the team rankings in T20I cricket, but history favours New Zealand in their more recent encounters vs India in ICC tournaments. Incredibly, the last time India beat the Kiwis in an ICC tournament was way back in the 203 ICC ODI World Cup.
In fact, in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in ICC tournaments, NZ have beaten India four times
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