How to avoid the breakdown of world economy COVID-19?
The global economy is more or less dependent on 3 billion people. This containment aims to prevent coronavirus from spreading and to protect those who are vulnerable to the it-the the vast majority of the population. Unless otherwise established, we are all potential suppliers and distributors who must be constrained in our own and social interests.
My concept is to look at the other side of the pandemic, i.e., the people who are not, or will no longer be, vulnerable to COVID-19-most often without knowing it. Overall these people are immunized, or will soon be, without realizing it. Even in the absence of a vaccine, the number of these people would increase very high.
The aim is to classify this population utilizing a serology test that detects antibodies. This is separate from a coronavirus check itself. Those who gained immunity, as demonstrated by their antibodies, would return to work immediately, with no danger to themselves or the rest of the population. From a strategic point of view, this strategy will require a stabilization, reestablishment, and restructuring of broken command structures and operating groups in all sectors. The most vulnerable health staff in healthcare settings will be one case in point.
There are two kinds of COVID-19 experiments currently underway. The first kind is studies of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) by taking samples from the upper respiratory tract. Since these are based on the amplification of the coronavirus genetic material, they allow detection of its existence but do not provide any other detail.
The second form is serological tests involving a sample of blood. This form of the test will show the existence of antibodies in people who have been in contact with coronavirus but who have been able to remove it through their immune system, as well as to show whether the virus is present. People with these antibodies are considered as “immunized.”
This immunized population needs to be identified because it represents a labor force that can immediately be released from confinement and put back to work. This population would become the majority due to three separate pathways leading to three classes of immunized individuals (see diagram below):
Group 1: Individuals who initially tested negative for coronavirus (virtually everybody at the start). Since then, they have been in contact with the virus but were able to resolve it naturally, most often without realizing it. Such individuals will tend to test negative for coronavirus because they have formed antibodies to suppress the virus and prevent it from reappearing, at least for a certain period, thereby enjoying what is called “herd immunity.” This is possibly the largest group in the immune population.
Group 2: People who originally tested positive for coronavirus. Yet they have developed no symptoms and, due to the power of their immune system, were eventually able to get rid of the virus without realizing it. This community is quite similar to the first, except that they have tested coronavirus positive once.
Group 3: People who initially tested coronavirus positive, but who are more susceptible than the preceding category. Such individuals have shown symptoms that could need hospitalization but are considered “healed” in the statistics.
I know that the output of these two kinds of tests – PCR and serological – is far from meeting the specified needs, which are already colossal, at present. Necessity is the mother of invention. The manufacturing infrastructure of the world can be modified and reoriented to match existing and future demand. Serological tests would allow immunological status to be established, and give people the possibility to end their confinement and return to work, without risk for themselves or those around them.
The stakes are considerable. We desperately need to tackle this economic waste and aberration — to say nothing of human dissatisfaction — that currently represents the confining of billions of people. Through determining immunological status through serological testing, which has the potential to save the world economy from disastrous paralysis with unforeseen implications, this confinement can be dramatically reduced.
Despite these stakes, the world must now use its resources to rapidly manufacture the required quantity of COVID-19 medical tests, before eventually overcoming it by creating a vaccine.
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