Is cryptocurrency going up or down today?
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Welcome I hope you're having a fantastic day we have a Green Day across the board
today so let's take a look at what's going on and uh with bitcoin and the markets so uh
the Dow, is up 500 points right now we still have about 45 minutes to go till the closing
s p is up 1.69 percent the Nasdaq is up 2.2, so the market is trying to
make up for a bit of downward action that we've seen here recently on the back of
earnings, so earnings are telling the markets that things are not terribly bad right now
so that's what's giving the fed the confidence to act aggressively and on another note
interest rates are still rising due to the 10-year treasury being up bonds are up
the 10-year is at 2.919 right now, so we haven't seen levels like that in a long time so
that is what is uh putting pressure on mortgage rates, and mortgage rates are over five
percent now, so we are already starting to see the effects in the housing market and
right here, distressed sales are starting to happen and nine-figure discounts hard to sell
mega-mansions find a last resort and a real estate auction, of course, I'm being
facetious here, but generally the high-end luxury real estate is where it starts, and then
you start to have second homes will start to feel the effects builders will start to feel the
effects so that's where the effects of high-interest rates are seen first and foremost is
in the luxury market second home market investment property market
and home builders because people that contract to buy a house that's under
construction will contract it with one payment based on an interest rate when the
project begins and if rates are two percent higher on the back end that can affect the
value of a house depending on the price point by close to 75 to 100 000 in terms of
what they can afford depending on how much they have to put down, so just something
to keep an eye on and of course uh all eyes are still on the war in Ukraine and
watching for escalation there and potential involvement by n to uh if things get out of
control and markets will react to that definitely if things escalate there so um
all eyes are on that and then of course the fed still hasn't done anything, yet they are
starting to come out and kind of give some indications of what they might do at their
next meeting, so we will have to wait and see what they actually do, so let's take a look
at the charts and uh this is the hourly that we're looking at if you look at the
Dow Jones nice little rebound here kind of bouncing along in a range right now ranging
sideways Nasdaq had a nice little relief bounce here from the last couple of days of
downward action s p looking the same and of course, here's bitcoin on the hourly and
bitcoin is working to unwind this recent uh move here and retrace this entire
move, but it's finding a bit of resistance there at the 41 000 uh seven forty-one
a thousand six forty-one thousand seven mark, we'll have to wait and see if it gets over it
and of course all the major altcoins uh are following the exact same price action as
bitcoin, so a lot of algorithmic formulas at play here automated trading
happening right now manipulating the price which is it being, what it is, so you just need to
understand these patterns and the patterns of manipulation, so you can stay ahead of
the trade and a lot of long squeezing and short squeezing long covering short covering
going on here with these big spikes, so let's take a look at it on the daily
and um you can see yesterday we had a nice bitcoin had a nice rebound yesterday uh
it was touching the lows at 38.5, and it bounced back to 41.54 so that was a nice little
rebound yesterday and continuing that upward momentum today, let's take a look at
the moving averages and uh right now we are above bitcoin is above the
100-day moving average trying to hang on to that, so we'll have to see how that rolls
into the close then the next test is going to be the 50-day moving average still well
below the 200-day moving average, which ultimately to get back into a bull market
uptrend the price has to get over that 200-day moving average, so that's when bitcoin
has Been in a bull market when it's been above all major moving averages, but
Especially that 200 days then the 100 than the 50. And again we've looked at where
we've seen this price action before where bitcoin has lost the 50 in the 100 came back
played with that 100-day moving average, and then what happened after that, so let's
take a look in the past right here where bitcoin found support on the 100 went back
above the 200 stayed above it for a while continuation, uh bitcoin played with that
100 days moving average, right here and ultimately went up above the 200
again but right here where bitcoin loses that 100 day and goes down and checks
the 200 after that kind of this area right here lost the 50 bounced off the 100 plays with
the 50 loses the 100 and then what we've been tracking Especially is back here in
2017 2018 uh bear market cycle in bitcoin where uh right in this area where bitcoin
kind of plays with that 100-day moving average uh drops below, pops up above finds
support rises up finds rejection at the 200 eventually rolls down bounces off the 50 and
give you know plays with that 5100 range
and then ultimately goes down, comes back checks the 100 pops up above it checks
the 200 and goes back and loses it again for more downward action, so this is the kind
of price action, a little different as this was ultimately a downward trend
setting lower lows on each of these major drops, the difference is right now bitcoin is
continuing to set higher lows off of each of these actions right now, so that is one
encouraging sign about the area that we're in right now with price not wanting to give
up those major levels, the weekly is the only thing that is concerning because
price is still below the midline, of the Gaussian channel on the weekly and whenever
the price stays below the midline, it always goes to check that bottom line down below
it which is your buying opportunity historically in bitcoin every time it's lost that major
moving average like that um I click the wrong button here hang on let me
reset this chart and uh go back there we go, so we'll go look at this Gaussian, channel
here where price loses that midline, goes down breaks below and that's generally the
area where you're going to want to be buying bitcoin, in the long run, uh each time so
let's take a look at the moving averages here close the Gaussian channel
and look at it on the weekly and whenever bitcoin goes down it loses that 100 on the
weekly again it goes down and checks the 200-week moving average and finds
support their, so right now we got to see if it's going to continue to find support on that
100 weeks moving average and ultimately where price will end up in the long run so
um, that's where we are at with bitcoin right now in the things that I'm looking at um
ultimately on bitcoin in terms of Whether I can hold this consistent price action
and like I said, one of the things that you know is boating positive for bitcoin and
looking good for bitcoin is the fact that it's putting in that's on the weekly it's still putting
in these higher uh you know higher lows on the weekly just like it is on the daily uh in
this price action, it's still consistently putting in higher lows versus back in the time
frame that we were looking at in 2017 when it was putting these lower lows in 2017-
2018 bear market this channel here that we've been tracking bitcoin is
continuing to put in, these higher lows, so that is one thing that's kind of encouraging its
you know it did come back and put a lower low in, you know based on this higher low
uh the other day on the 11th, but it has been bouncing up and down trying to decide if
it's going to continue on from here and test the top of this channel again which
would be around that 48000 to 49000 range, uh, so we'll just have to wait and see if we
get continuation and of course, we'll look at this parallel channel that we've been kind
of following here that price has been playing with right in this area down to, and I've
been tracking the closes here, not exactly parallel with this bottom line of the
the channel right there kind of gets out of whack a Little, bit but if the price bounces
back up here that's 48 you know 49 000 range, 48 7 49 000 range, and of course it's
found support each time on the lower level of this channel, which is right around that 39
38 5 39 000 range, so we'll have to see if the price is going to continue on in this
channel and
just kind of work it's way up and then works its way down work it's way up and just
continue to follow that as the price continues to rise sideways and look for further
continuation as we move along here, so these are the things that I'm looking at right
now in the markets and with bitcoin and cryptocurrency, so we'll just have to see how
price continues to react if it can continue to find support at the bottom of that channel
and if it can get back above that 100 days to ultimately uh find out if we're going to get
rejected it's 200-day or get above the 200-day moving average again, which is also the
the critical moving average for all the indices and for all the individual stocks
that 200-day moving average is a critical uh support level that we want to see
everything to get back above to continue the uptrend, but the fed has a big task at hand
with inflation running as hot as it is and as high as it is, so they're going to have to act, and they're going to have to act big, so we'll have to see what the effects of that look
like as we get into the month of may
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